Initial commit with 2026 World Cup Quant Platform core modules and CI/CD

platform/backend/app/analytics/environment_model.py

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+"""比賽環境衰減模型（高海拔與高溫）。"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import math
+
+
+def adjust_team_strength_for_environment(
+    base_strength: float,
+    venue_altitude: float,
+    venue_heat_index: float,
+    is_second_half: bool,
+    team_acclimatized: bool,
+) -> float:
+    """調整球隊能力值，反映環境壓力。
+
+    - 海拔 > 1500m 且球隊未適應，第二節時套用疲勞衰退。
+    - 熱指數（Heat Index）越高，衰退越明顯。
+    """
+
+    if base_strength < 0:
+        raise ValueError('base_strength 必須大於等於 0')
+
+    adjusted = float(base_strength)
+    if not is_second_half:
+        return adjusted
+
+    altitude_penalty = 0.0
+    heat_penalty = 0.0
+
+    if not team_acclimatized and venue_altitude >= 1500:
+        # 以對數遞增，1500m 為轉折，3000m 接近上限。
+        altitude_factor = math.log1p((venue_altitude - 1500.0) / 300.0)
+        altitude_penalty = 0.025 + 0.045 * min(altitude_factor, 2.8)
+
+    # 熱指數高於 30，逐步加入疲勞因子，超過 38 非常明顯。
+    if venue_heat_index > 30:
+        heat_excess = min(max(venue_heat_index - 30.0, 0.0), 30.0)
+        heat_penalty = 0.0012 * heat_excess
+
+    total_penalty = altitude_penalty + heat_penalty
+    adjusted *= max(0.2, 1.0 - total_penalty)
+    return adjusted